This 6 part blog uses the impact of Thursday's UK General Election result on each recognised Party to explain one of the main reasons why we are frequently blindsided by human attitudes and behaviour, and how to better prepare ourselves.
The result was totally unforeseen - by pollsters, pundits, politicians or voters, except in Scotland, and even there it seems the victors hardly dared believe it.
No-one believed the exit polls at 10pm, predicting a Conservative majority. Tony Blair's controversial former New Labour communications chief ('spin doctor') Alistair Campbell said he'd eat his kilt if they were true; Liberal Democrat campaign chairman Lord Paddy Ashdown said he'd eat his hat. Both are now contemplating a textile diet!
So why did it happen, and what personal lessons can we apply in our own lives?
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Instead of a hung parliament with messy negotiations to form a coalition (and we're told staff at 10 Downing Street had already booked meeting rooms and ordered sandwiches), David Cameron is the first Conservative Prime Minister since Margaret Thatcher in 1983 to increase his majority after a first term.
Two electoral lions roared. As their former leader Alex Salmond pithily put it the Scottish National Party (SNP) was one of them, sweeping 56 of 59 UK Parliamentary seats in Scotland, mainly at Labour's expense. The other lion was so-called aspirational Middle England. It sustained the rout of the Labour Party and mauled the Liberal Democrats to a pulp.
The reason for this remarkable result was maddeningly stark and simple - right under our noses, in fact:Two electoral lions roared. As their former leader Alex Salmond pithily put it the Scottish National Party (SNP) was one of them, sweeping 56 of 59 UK Parliamentary seats in Scotland, mainly at Labour's expense. The other lion was so-called aspirational Middle England. It sustained the rout of the Labour Party and mauled the Liberal Democrats to a pulp.
Politics, and life, is foremost about emotions, NOT ideas!!!
NMT uses a 4 level hierarchical structure of the brain. The 1st (lowest and most ancient, animal) level is the brainstem; the primitive brain. ALL stimuli enter the brain through it and are instantaneously scanned for threat. It's the home of the hard wired, knee jerk, fight or flight response.
Within milliseconds the 2nd and 3rd levels kick in. The main behavioural factors here are emotional and tribal:
- Does this stimulus make me happy, sad, angry, tense, hostile, afraid, anxious, depressed, betrayed. etc.?
- How must I react to gain approval in my tribe - my family, friends, peers, gang, boss, company, sports team, political grouping, union, religion, denomination, etc. etc.? What is 'expected' of me? The brain's need for affiliation (acceptance within a group) overrides rational thought and often leads to irrational action.
The 4th (highest and youngest) level is the neo-cortex, the sophisticated upper brain in which complex, abstract and concrete (rational) thought occurs. This is the home of ideas, the place where, for example, respectful political debate is supposed to take place.
To explain the shocking chasm that exists between the brainstem and neo-cortex, and the brainstem's perilous power, I equated it to a six year old child who's found the keys to Dad's Ferrari supercar and is taking it for a ride. You know there's going to be very serious trouble!!
In the remaining parts of this blog over the next few days, armed with these rudimentary, but fundamental, neurological insights I'll seek to explain the fortunes of each of the recognised Parties in last Thursday's election and what we might learn from them if we want to increase the chances of a) success; and b) avoiding catastrophe in life ourselves.
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